Hurricane Forecasters Predict Above-Average Season For 2021 – CBS Miami
MIAMI (CBSMiami) – Colorado State University’s hurricane season forecast for 2021 was released on Thursday and calls for above-average activity in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico again this year.
Thanks to the presence of La Niña, records were broken last year with 30 named storms, 13 of which turned into hurricanes. This year the CSU is calling for 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes (cat. 3, 4, 5). A normal year is 14, 7, and 3, respectively.
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The reasons for the above-average activity forecast are based on the expectation that conditions in La Niña will persist through autumn 2021. La Niña is a pattern of cool surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific near the equator. These cool temperatures result in a decrease in wind shear over the Caribbean, and this decrease in disruptive shear often leads to an increase in hurricane activity.
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Another reason for an above-average seasonal forecast is the forecast that the water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal. When ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are warmer than normal, hurricane activity is usually higher than average.
These two factors are the main components of the seasonal outlook, which is updated monthly through summer.
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Hurricane season kicks off June 1, and as always, officials warn that just one storm here in South Florida will make a busy season for those affected, regardless of whether the season is above or below normal.